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download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewMarkets underestimate inflation's likely endurance, as an array of factors keep price upside churning, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon told Bloomberg TV. "I think the underlying inflation may not go away the way people expect it to," he told the outlet at the JPMorgan Global Markets Conference. AdvertisementIt's a point Dimon keeps reiterating despite market bullishness, as investors keep trading on the premise that subsiding inflation allows interest rates to eventually ease. In his annual letter to JPMorgan shareholders published last month, he expressed similarly doomy outlooks concerning inflation, interest rates and the economy's trajectory.
Persons: , Jamie Dimon, Dimon's, he's, Dimon Organizations: Service, JPMorgan, Bloomberg, JPMorgan Global Markets, Business, Bank of America's, Global Fund Locations: Bank, China, Beijing, Russia, United States
Stocks are vulnerable to a stagflation or hard landing rebound, says Bank of America's Michael Hartnett. AdvertisementStock markets face downturn risk if stagflation or recession anxiety re-materializes, Bank of America's top global strategist Michael Hartnett wrote on Tuesday. "Sentiment not at 'close-eyes-and-sell' levels but risk assets vulnerable to more evidence of stagflation," he noted in the bank's latest Global Fund Manager Survey. Although outlooks have since calmed, stagflation seemed like a growing possibility last month, when estimate-beating inflation data eclipsed shallow first-quarter GDP. Stagflation may have some part to play, as inflation remains the leading tail risk, while fears of an "economic hard landing" grew stronger.
Persons: America's Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, , Michael Hartnett, stagflation Organizations: America's, Service, materializes, Bank of America's, Global Fund, Survey, Japan Utilities, Federal Reserve Locations: China, Europe, Japan
For most investors, holding just one passive global stock market fund and one passive global bond market fund over the long term is the best way to construct a portfolio, the strategists said. While some more time-consuming, complicated strategies may allow for higher returns, this approach gives investors the best all-around bang for their buck, Loeys and Wise said. Our point is instead that we believe you can achieve most, if not all of your financial objectives by following our KISS approach. Two stock funds that do this include the Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund (VTWAX) and the SPDR Portfolio MSCI Global Stock Market ETF (SPGM). For investors who want to do more with their portfolio, Loeys and Wise suggested dedicating 80%-90% of one's portfolio to the above strategy, and using the other 10%-20% on other investments.
Persons: Jan Loeys, Alexander Wise, Wise, Joeys, Loeys Organizations: JPMorgan, Business, KISS, Index, Stock Market, Bond, Fidelity
The four-year total return for the S & P 500 since March 23, 2020, is just about 150%, or 25.7% annualized. .SPX mountain 2020-03-23 S & P 500 since the Covid low This is, of course, an idealized starting point from which to measure performance. While the S & P 500 bottomed at around a three-year low under 2,200, the index spent only a few weeks under 2,500. More qualitatively, it's a bull market, and in a bull market the overshoots occur to the upside, so a rally being "ahead of itself" is not fatal. And the S & P 500 is only 9% higher than it was more than two years ago, hardly reaching escape velocity from planet Sanity.
Persons: , Warren, Ned Davis, Tim Hayes, bullishness, Rocky White Organizations: HSBC, 3Fourteen, Bank of Japan, Fed, Ned Davis Research, Schaeffer's Investment Research, Intelligence, Bank of America
Competition is heating up in the electric vehicle industry, especially between investor favorite Tesla and Chinese automakers like the Warren Buffett-backed BYD . He said that most EV businesses had not succeeded in making money yet, given the "extraordinary" amount of capital invested initially. He manages over $750 million across the Latitude Horizon Fund and the Latitude Global Fund . 'Phenomenal' Ferrari Lait described Ferrari in particular as "a phenomenal business." The average price target on Ferrari is 391.96 euros ($425.14), according to FactSet data, giving it potential downside of around 8%.
Persons: Tesla, Warren Buffett, EVs, Freddie Lait, CNBC's, Lait, Ferrari Lait, Ferrari, Morgan Stanley's, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Latitude Investment Management, Ferrari, Motors, Volkswagen, BMW, New York Stock Exchange, Euronext, Euronext Milan, UBS Locations: Euronext Milan
But one firm in the wider ecosystem that's perhaps lesser known stands out to fund manager Freddie Lait, which is McKesson Corp — the U.S. pharmaceuticals distribution company. Calling the company an "exciting idea," Lait noted that the 100-year-old business is "very defensive and very diversified." Lait manages over $750 million collectively between two funds — the Latitude Horizon Fund and the Latitude Global Fund . Of the 19 analysts covering the stock, 14 give it a buy or overweight rating, while three have hold ratings and one has a sell rating. The average price target on the stock is $550.25, according to FactSet data, giving it potential upside of 6%.
Persons: Eli Lilly, Freddie Lait, Lait, , That's, … It's, McKesson, MCK, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Novo Nordisk, Latitude Investment Management, CNBC, U.S, Cardinal Health, McKesson Corp, JPMorgan, Rite Aid, receivables, Leerink Partners, pharma
Shares of oil giants and European infrastructure companies can act as a hedge against inflation while also delivering strong annual growth, according to fund manager Freddie Lait. Lait manages two funds — the Latitude Horizon Fund and the Latitude Global Fund — with more than $750 million of assets collectively and holds all three stocks in both funds. BP SHEL 1Y line The fund manager explained that with oil currently around $85 per barrel, and his assumption of $70-75 long-term, his oil and gas stock picks can generate nearly double-digit annual returns for shareholders. 'Phenomenally interesting' stock Beyond energy names, Lait said his favorite inflation-linked stock is Vinci which he described as "phenomenally interesting." The company operates a mix of toll roads and civil engineering projects with long-term inflation adjustment mechanisms.
Persons: Freddie Lait, Lait, Vinci, Goldman Sachs Organizations: Latitude Investment Management, Shell, CNBC Pro, International Energy Agency, London Gatwick, Atlantic City International, Vinci Locations: Saudi Arabia's, Aramco, Burbank, United States
From major elections to inflation and recession risks, the world right now is highly unpredictable, according to Freddie Lait of Latitude Investment Management. Join CNBC's Karen Tso as she asks the fund manager how investors should navigate this uncertainty. Lait has been a managing partner at Latitude Investment Management since 2016, before which he was a fund manager at firms including Odey Asset Management and Rothschild Private Management. Join CNBC's Karen Tso as she asks the fund manager how investors should navigate this uncertainty. Join CNBC Pro Talks on Wednesday, Feb. 21, at 12 p.m. GMT / 8:00 p.m. SGT / 7 a.m.
Persons: Freddie Lait, Karen Tso, He'll, Lait, Goldman Sachs, Tesla Organizations: Latitude Investment Management, JPMorgan, Sony, BP, Odey Asset Management, Rothschild Private Management, Morningstar Locations: U.S, China
Meanwhile, investors have cut their cash levels to 4.2% from 4.8%, the survey said. "Most bullish FMS in 2 years ... investors go all-in on U.S. tech," Hartnett wrote in a note to clients. For the first time since April 2022, investors became confident enough to predict that the U.S. economy would skirt a recession, the BofA survey showed. The proprietary indicator gauges when inflows or outflows related to stock-based funds point to investors moving too far to either side. Hartnett highlighted a few contrarian trades for a hard landing scenario, which includes going long cash and defensive stocks, and short technology companies.
Persons: Michael Hartnett, Hartnett Organizations: Bank of America, Manager Survey, FMS Locations: U.S
Investor sentiment has turned so bullish that Bank of America's Michael Hartnett thinks it's time to consider a few contrarian trades. For the first time since April 2022, investors stopped predicting a recession in the U.S., the BofA survey showed. The Wall Street firm's widely followed investment strategist Hartnett is recommending a few contrarian trades for a "hard landing" scenario this year. He said investors could go long cash and defensive stocks, while shorting technology shares that have led the market rally over the past year. For a "no landing" scenario, where the economy would continue to grow but inflation stays high, the strategist recommends buying commodities, energy stocks as well as the greenback.
Persons: America's Michael Hartnett, Hartnett Organizations: America's, Survey, Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Tesla, Bank of America Locations: U.S
Read previewThe labor market smashed expectations in January, adding 353,000 new jobs, far above economist forecasts of 187,000. Despite the strong headline number, however, there are signs that the job market is deteriorating beneath the surface. For one, the Bureau of Labor Statistics' household survey is showing some divergence from its payroll survey. "High labor and credit costs are beginning to materially impact corporate profits, which impacts both the labor market and (eventually) the default rate." Still, while there are signs of weakening, there are also signs of improvement in the labor market.
Persons: , Jeff Schulze, today's, Shulze, Louis Fed, Lance Roberts, Ian Shepherdson, Lauren Goodwin Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Business, of Labor Statistics, BLS, of Labor, ClearBridge Investments, RIA Advisors, National Federation of Independent Business, Pantheon, Bank of America's Global, New York Life Investments, ClearBridge
"For those of you younger than us who did not live through the Tech Bubble of the late 1990s, you are now living through Tech Bubble 2.0. As a reminder, the NASDAQ fell about 80% when that bubble burst in the mild recession of the early 2000s," Wolfenbarger said. AdvertisementThere is evidence that backs up Wolfenbarger's bubble claims, starting with fairly standard valuation measures like the Shiller cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings ratio. While it's not as high as it was during the dot-com bubble, it's higher than it was in 1929 — and is at one of its most elevated levels in history. Bank of AmericaAs for what will finally deflate the bubble, Wolfenbarger is expecting a recession to hit the US economy.
Persons: , Microsoft —, Jon Wolfenbarger, Merrill Lynch, Wolfenbarger, it's, America's Michael Hartnett, Louis Fed Wolfenbarger, Jeremy Grantham, Adam Karr, Orbis Investment Management Karr, It's Organizations: Service, Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Business, JPMorgan, ClearBridge, Tech, NASDAQ, ClearBridge Investments Bank, America's, Bank of America, Bank of America's Global, Institute for Supply Management's Manufacturing, Orbis Investment Management, Global Fund, Federal Reserve Locations: Japan
Hong Kong CNN —It’s been a rollercoaster week for stocks trading in mainland China and Hong Kong. “For a sustained rally in China stocks, we think China will need to address the core of these concerns (predominantly property sector issues and US-China tensions),” the analysts added. In the 7 days to January 24, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tracking Chinese stocks recorded large inflows of $12.6 billion, according to a Citi survey of global fund managers. Still, investors have been fleeing Chinese stocks over a much longer period because they are worried about the country’s economic prospects. The country is facing the prospect of a vicious cycle whereby lower demand leads to lower investment, lower production and lower income, thus causing even lower demand.
Persons: Hong Kong CNN — It’s, Hong, — haven’t, ” Nomura, , Li Qiang, , Li Yunze, Pan Gongsheng, Florence Lo, HSI, Raymond Yeung, ” Yeung Organizations: Hong Kong CNN, Shanghai Shenzhen, , Shanghai Financial Exchange, Bloomberg, State, Supervision, Administration Commission, Administration of Financial, Reuters, People’s Bank of China, Citi, Enodo Economics, HSBC, Greater China, ANZ Research Locations: China, Hong Kong, Shanghai, United States, Beijing, Davos, Switzerland, Greater
If you want a sense of how frothy things have become, look no further than the December Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey. This is a survey of roughly 250 global fund managers and is a very good gauge of sentiment among fund managers. 1-month average returns: 1.9% (vs. 0.6% in all 1-month periods) 3- month average returns: 3.3% (vs. 1.9%) 1- year average returns: 7.5% (vs. 7.9%) Source: StoneX While eight-day streaks are rare, the Dow has done even better. Last July, th e Dow broke a 13-day winning streak , the likes of which were last seen in 1987. It's currently at an RSI (Relative Strength Indicator, a gauge of momentum over the past 14 trading days) of 85.
Persons: Dow, Matt Weller, That's, Weller, It's Organizations: Bank of America Global Fund, Survey, Federal, Dow Locations: China
[1/2] A Chinese national flag flutters at the headquarters of a commercial bank on a financial street near the headquarters of the People's Bank of China, China's central bank, in central Beijing November 24, 2014. "The outlook change also reflects the increased risks related to structurally and persistently lower medium-term economic growth and the ongoing downsizing of the property sector," Moody's said. "Moody's concerns about China's economic growth prospects, fiscal sustainability and other aspects are unnecessary," the ministry said. STRUGGLING FOR TRACTIONMost analysts believe China's growth is on track to hit the government's target of around 5% this year, but that compares with a COVID-weakened 2022 and activity is highly uneven. Analysts widely agree that China's growth is downshifting from breakneck expansion in the past few decades.
Persons: Kim Kyung, Moody's, Ken Cheung, Pan Gongsheng, COVID, Goldman Sachs, Gnaneshwar Rajan, Kevin Yao, Tom Hogue, Kim Coghill Organizations: People's Bank of China, REUTERS, Mizuho Bank, Economic Work Conference, Fitch, China's Finance Ministry, International Monetary Fund, Thomson Locations: Beijing, Hong Kong, China, outflows, Bengaluru
Harris was delayed because she had been on the telephone with the emir of Qatar regarding the Israel-Hamas war. Political Cartoons View All 1277 ImagesThe awkward double booking during Harris’ hastily arranged Dubai trip illustrates a set of tricky — and at times potentially contradictory — policy and political crosscurrents. The Biden administration with its diverse coalition of voters is trying to navigate these crosscurrents just as the 2024 presidential race is heating up. In Dubai, Harris said it was “our duty and our obligation” to do more to move the world away from fossil fuels and limit the increase in average global temperatures. “President Biden and his administration should show their statement in action,” said Nihad Awad, executive director of the Council on American-Islamic Relations.
Persons: Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Kamala Harris ”, Harris, Harris ’, Biden, , ” Harris, Donald Trump, JL Andrepont, ” Andrepont, Amber Sherman, ” Sherman, , Nihad Awad, John Kirby, Israel, “ There’s, ” Kirby, ___ Boak Organizations: United Arab Emirates, United Arab, Republican, Democratic, The Associated Press, NORC, for Public Affairs Research, Black Caucus, Young Democrats of, Islamic, White House Locations: DUBAI, United Arab, Dubai, United Arab Emirates, Washington, Qatar, Israel, Gaza, U.S, Palestine
Brazil proposes global forest conservation fund at COP28
  + stars: | 2023-12-01 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Smoke from a fire rises into the air as trees burn amongst vegetation in Brazil's Amazon rainforest near Humaita, Amazonas state, Brazil, August 3, 2023. REUTERS/Leonardo Benassatto/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsDUBAI, Dec 1 (Reuters) - Brazil on Friday unveiled a proposal at the COP28 climate summit to set up a global fund to finance forest conservation that it hopes can raise $250 billion from sovereign wealth funds and other investors, including the oil industry. The plan unveiled by Brazilian Environment Minister Marina Silva and Finance Minister Fernando Haddad calls for the creation of an innovative global instrument to remunerate the maintenance and restoration of tropical forests. Brazil is asking other countries to contribute to the final design of the fund. The funds would be deposited at a global organization, which could raise further resources by issuing low-risk bonds.
Persons: Leonardo Benassatto, Brazilian Environment Minister Marina Silva, Fernando Haddad, Andre Correa, Lago, deforest, Lisandra Paraguassu, William Maclean Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Brazilian Environment Minister, Finance, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Humaita, Amazonas, Brazil, Dubai
ORLANDO, Florida, Nov 29 (Reuters) - If cash has been king, the Fed may be plotting regicide. But once the first Fed cut comes into view, that money will move rapidly out the maturity curve and into riskier assets. A recent report by BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, notes that on average, cash returns 4.5% in the year following the final Fed rate hike, significantly underperforming a wide array of asset classes. Of that, $2.24 trillion is in retail investor funds and $3.52 trillion is in institutional funds. According to Bank of America, investors have poured $1.2 trillion into money market funds so far this year.
Persons: Christopher Waller, Justin Christofel, Cash, Goldman Sachs, Ray Dalio, Jamie McGeever, Josie Kao Organizations: BlackRock, Fed, ICI, Bank of America, Goldman, BofA, Deutsche Bank, U.S, Bridgewater, Reuters, Thomson Locations: ORLANDO, Florida, BlackRock
"If there is a regime shift, then what has worked could be quite different from what does work," McLennan said. That means the growth stocks that dominated for years may come back to earth in the mid-2020s. He also recommends that investors diversify away from growth stocks that thrived under low rates and instead broaden out to value-oriented names. Valuations explain 80% of a stock's returns over a decade, according to Bank of America. Smead sees energy in stocks in Canada also outperforming in the coming decade, as well as European banks.
Persons: , Peter Bates, Rowe Price, Damanick Dantes, We're, Dantes, you've, He's, Matt McLennan, McLennan, Kimball Brooker, Morningstar, Nicola Stafford, Stafford, it's, Molina, Bates, Russell, Cole Smead, that's, Phillip Colmar, Colmar, Bob Doll, Doll, Smead, Michael Sheldon, Sheldon, who's, there's, Chris Chen, Chen, Roth Organizations: Service, Business, Global, International, McLennan, First Eagle Global Fund, Eagle Investments, Goldman, Asset Management, Stock, Molina Healthcare, Vanguard Value, Healthcare, Bank of America, Comerica Wealth Management, MRB Partners, Canadian, Crossmark Global Investments, BlackRock, Energy, P Bank ETF, RDM Financial, Social Security, Social, Insight Financial, Trust, IRA Locations: Canada, Colmar, United States, Canadian, Europe, Treasuries
Climate Change Conference (COP 28) that opens on Nov. 30 in Dubai. Neither floods nor fires are new to Greece but with climate change, they are becoming a frequent disruptor to an economy dependent on tourism and farming. "We have to change our prediction methods," Skylakakis said, acknowledging the rapid pace of climate change. Mitsotakis has urged the EU to top up its solidarity fund and help countries tackle the impact of climate change. Adaptation measures worth 67 billion euros could reduce that loss to 510 billion euros, the country's leading economic think tank IOBE said in a February report.
Persons: Louisa Gouliamaki, Dimitris Kouretas, Kouretas, Theodore Skylakakis, Storm Daniel, Kostas Agorastos, Giorgos Stasinos, Kyriakos Mitsotakis, Sokratis Famellos, Skylakakis, Thanos Giannakakis, Nikos Papathanasis, Miltiadis Gkouzouris, Mitsotakis, Petros Varelidis, Lefteris Papadimas, Renee Maltezou, Michele Kambas, Daniel Flynn Organizations: Reuters, United Nations Environment Program, Mount Olympus, HVA, Chamber, European, Justice, EU, Water Management, Environment Ministry, Thomson Locations: Vlohos, Greece, Greece's, Thessaly, Europe, Dubai, Los Angeles, Dutch, Athens, Thessaly's, Mouzaki, Netherlands
Japanese national flag is hoisted atop the headquarters of Bank of Japan in Tokyo, Japan September 20, 2023. If the BOJ pulls interest rates above zero for the first time in years, banks' lending margins could rise. Steve Donzé, deputy head of investment at Pictet Asset Management in Tokyo, said he had also been buying Japanese bank stocks. BOND PAINJapanese inflation means bond investors could suffer. But investors are cautious about this so-called yield curve control policy ending as the BOJ is forced to tighten monetary policy.
Persons: Issei Kato, Shigeka Koda, Koda, Steve Donzé, Junichi Inoue, Janus Henderson, James Halse, Warren Buffett, David Hogarty, Jon Day, Grégoire Pesques, Amundi, Pictet's Donzé, Naomi Rovnick, Kevin Buckland, Dhara Ranasinghe, Jane Merriman Organizations: Bank of Japan, REUTERS, LONDON, Asia Investment, Kosaido Holdings, Kyushu Financial, Pictet, Management, Platinum Asset Management, Global, Bank of America, Tokyo Stock Exchange, Dublin, Newton Investment Management, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, TOKYO, Singapore, Sydney, United States, Europe, London
A bronze seal for the Department of the Treasury is shown at the U.S. Treasury building in Washington, U.S., January 20, 2023. Investors snapped up $23.5 billion in stocks in the week to Nov. 15, marking the second largest weekly inflow into equities of 2023. Cash funds saw inflows of $20.5 billion, BofA said, and overall investors bought $2.6 billion in bonds, marking a sixth week of inflows. Outflows from emerging markets debt continued for the 16th week, with EM funds shedding $1.6 billion in the latest week. BofA's bull & bear indicator, a measure of market sentiment, rose marginally to 1.7 from 1.6, a contrarian "buy" signal, said BofA.
Persons: Kevin Lamarque, Cash, BofA, financials, Lucy Raitano, Amanda Cooper, Chizu Organizations: Department of, U.S . Treasury, REUTERS, Treasury, Bank of America, Investors, Federal Reserve, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, U.S, United States, Europe
Based on the bank's monthly Global Fund Manager Survey, strategist Michael Hartnett created a list of "contrarian" outcomes and hedging opportunities. As of now, high-quality assets are expected to outperform in 2024, with only 6% of fund managers predicting otherwise, said Hartnett. Close to 90% of surveyed fund managers see elevated geopolitical risks in the coming year. For a contrarian outcome, Harnett says to trade as if oil prices will move lower still by shorting crude. Only 6% of fund managers are predicting inflation moves higher next year, according to BofA.
Persons: Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, Harnett, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: of America, Global Fund, Survey, Bank of America's, Nasdaq, Treasury, Securities
A logo of Panasonic Corp is pictured at the CEATEC JAPAN 2017 (Combined Exhibition of Advanced Technologies) at the Makuhari Messe in Chiba, Japan, October 2, 2017. REUTERS/Toru Hanai/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsTOKYO, Nov 17 (Reuters) - Japan's Panasonic Holdings (6752.T) said on Friday it plans to sell a stake in its automotive systems business to funds managed by U.S. private equity firm Apollo Global Management, and has signed a memorandum of understanding with an Apollo affiliate. Continued investment in the automotive systems business would be necessary to achieve sustained growth for the company amid a rapid shift to electric cars and changes to vehicle architecture, Panasonic said. The automotive unit makes cockpit and electronics systems. It is separate from Panasonic's energy unit that makes batteries for electric vehicles, including those from Tesla (TSLA.O).
Persons: Toru Hanai, Daniel Leussink, David Dolan, Christopher Cushing Organizations: Panasonic Corp, Advanced Technologies, Makuhari, REUTERS, Rights, Japan's Panasonic Holdings, U.S, Apollo Global Management, Apollo, Panasonic, Thomson Locations: JAPAN, Chiba, Japan, Tokyo
"This super pre-emptive right will work only in specific cases, with specific companies," Chebeskov said on the sidelines of a financial forum in Moscow on Nov. 14. "The idea was that this concerns only those strategic companies in which the state already has a share," Chebeskov said. The lack of clarity and uncertain timeline highlights the unpredictable nature of regulatory changes facing investors and businesses seeking to adjust their exposure to Russia. This compares with net outflows of around $48 million in March 2022 and $69 million in February this year. Western investors have already struggled to get assets out of Russia.
Persons: Vladimir Putin, Ivan Chebeskov, Chebeskov, Rybalkin, Tskhakaya, Thomas J Brock, Carlsberg's, Putin, JP Morgan, JPM, Vijay Marolia, Brock, Sinead Cruise, Alexander Marrow, Elena Fabrichnaya, Darya Korsunskaya, Jane Merriman Organizations: Ukraine LONDON, Reuters, Nato, Dyakin, Partners, Kaiser Consulting, Investors, Morningstar Direct, Federal Property Agency, Assets, Deutsche Bank, Regal Point Capital, HSBC, Expobank, Thomson Locations: Russia, Ukraine, MOSCOW, Moscow, Russian, Magnit, London
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